Standard Chartered forecasts that Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, will surge to $135,000 by the end of Q3 2025** and potentially hit **$200,000 by year-end, following its exit from the traditional halving cycle pattern.
Breaking the Halving Cycle: A New Era for Bitcoin
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, highlighted in a recent report that Bitcoin has moved beyond its historical post-halving price slump.
"Increased investor flows have disrupted the previous 18-month post-halving decline trend," Kendrick noted.
Key Market Drivers Fueling Bitcoin’s Growth
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Sustained inflows ($5B+ in 15 days).
- Corporate BTC Treasuries: Companies like Metaplanet and Strategy are accumulating Bitcoin aggressively.
- New Investor Participation: Leveraged buying strategies are gaining traction.
👉 Discover how Bitcoin ETFs are reshaping crypto investments
Potential Short-Term Volatility
While bullish, Kendrick cautioned about possible price fluctuations in Q3/Q4 2025 if historical halving cycles resurface. However, he emphasized that current market dynamics—absent in prior cycles—could mitigate downturns.
Corporate Bitcoin Demand Expected to Surge
In Q2 2025, ETFs and treasury firms purchased 245,000 BTC. Kendrick predicts even higher demand in Q3/Q4:
- Non-Strategy companies may offset Strategy’s slowed buying.
- Net-positive flows from treasury acquisitions could propel prices.
👉 Why corporations are hoarding Bitcoin
FAQs
1. Why does Standard Chartered expect Bitcoin to hit $200K?
Their analysis points to ETF inflows, corporate treasuries, and broken halving cycle patterns as primary catalysts.
2. What risks could derail Bitcoin’s rally?
A return to halving-cycle volatility or regulatory hurdles could introduce short-term dips.
3. How do spot Bitcoin ETFs impact the price?
ETFs create institutional demand, absorbing supply and driving prices upward.
4. Which companies hold the most Bitcoin?
Strategy leads, but firms like Metaplanet are rapidly expanding holdings.
5. Is $200K realistic for BTC in 2025?
Given current trends, Standard Chartered’s projection aligns with accelerated adoption and scarcity dynamics.
Key Takeaways
- Price Targets: $135K (Q3), $200K (EoY).
- Drivers: ETFs, corporate buying, halving cycle breakthrough.
- Risks: Short-term volatility from historical patterns.
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