Investment Thesis
According to CoinMarketCap, as of May 11, 2024, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $2.25 trillion, slightly higher than the previous weekend. Bitcoin dominates 53.18% of the market, while Ethereum accounts for 15.54%.
- Bitcoin (BTC): Priced at $61,000 per coin, with a 7-day decline of -3.33%.
- Ethereum (ETH): Priced at $2,900 per coin, with a 7-day decline of -6.23%.
Short-term investors’ holding cost is $59,900 per BTC**, while long-term investors’ cost is **$20,700 per BTC. Current prices remain above both thresholds, indicating resilience despite recent corrections.
Trading Activity
- Year-to-date (YTD) cryptocurrency trading volume: $11.46 trillion (+79.7% YoY).
- Coinbase YTD volume: $415.55 billion (+122.4% YoY).
- BTC futures open interest: $55.83 billion, rising from the previous week.
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External Liquidity & Stablecoins
- Global M2 growth (USA, Eurozone, China, Japan) declined by -0.5% YoY in March 2024.
- Stablecoin market cap (USDT+USDC+DAI): $149.3 billion, down slightly from the prior week.
Bitcoin ETF Flows
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $11.66 billion in net inflows YTD, with weekly inflows accounting for 0.2% of BTC’s total trading volume.
Mining Cost Trends
- BTC network hash rate: 588.61 EH/s, down -5.67% WoW.
- Mining difficulty: 86.69, declining WoW.
- Miner wallet balances: 1.8057 million BTC, nearing 2021 bull-market levels.
Key Global Developments
- Hong Kong: Testing tokenized deposits for a digital HKD and stablecoin payments.
- Europe: ESMA considers including crypto assets in investment products.
- U.S.: House voted to overturn SEC’s SAB121 rule; White House threatens veto.
- Switzerland: SNB explores CBDC for settling tokenized asset trades.
Investment Recommendations
Bitcoin is in its fourth market cycle, with analysts suggesting the current correction (-15% in April 2024) may present a buying opportunity.
- Top Picks: Coinbase (COIN), MicroStrategy (MSTR).
- Catalysts: Fed rate cuts or increased institutional adoption.
Risks
- Regulatory uncertainty: Global crackdowns may impact prices.
- Interest rate volatility: Fed policy shifts could trigger instability.
- Cybersecurity threats: Exchange breaches or data leaks remain a concern.
FAQ
Q: What’s driving Bitcoin’s price pressure?
A: Rising dollar index (105.33) and stagnant Fed rate expectations (4.50% 10-year yield).
Q: Are mining operations less profitable now?
A: Yes—hash rate and difficulty drops suggest reduced revenue for miners.
Q: When might BTC rebound?
A: Potential triggers include ETF inflows or macro liquidity improvements.
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