Introduction
In this candid discussion hosted by Colin Wu, founder of Wu Blockchain, three crypto analysts share their journeys — from earning their first crypto fortunes to navigating early setbacks. Participants include Wu Blockchain analyst Xiao Liu (@defioasis), former BitMEX analyst Shang (@lasertheend), and on-chain analyst "Table Maker Xiao Guo" (@sankin_eth).
Part 1: Entering Crypto and First Successes
Shang's Story: From Bitcoin Curiosity to DeFi Breakthrough
- 2018: Discovered Bitcoin during finance studies, initially viewed it as an alternative to Wall Street's exclusivity
- 2021: Pivotal moment exploring DeFi during graduate school, invested early in Solana (SOL) during low-price phases
- Key Moves: Contributed articles to crypto media, relocated to Singapore for full-time crypto work
- Current Focus: Airdrop opportunities after experiencing projects like Luna and FTX collapsing
Xiao Guo's Awakening: Skepticism to Crypto Adoption
- 2017: First Bitcoin exposure while working in Fuzhou, initially hesitant due to KYC concerns
- Turning Point: Bitcoin's 10x surge post-China's September 2017 regulations prompted deeper involvement
- Investment Philosophy: No singular "big win" but consistent participation across cycles, emphasizing gradual accumulation
Xiao Liu's Rollercoaster: From Contract Trading to NFT Gains
- 2020 Start: Entered during COVID lockdowns, began with Bitget contract trading
- 2021 Wins: Strategic investments in UniSwap (10x) and Filecoin (10x) grew ¥5,000 to ¥500,000
- NFT Boom: Profited from Mobox gaming platform (10x return), peaking at ¥3M+ before market corrections
Part 2: Crucial Lessons from Early Mistakes
Shang's Trust-Based Pitfalls
- Terra Luna Collapse: Learned hard lessons about decentralized stablecoin narratives and Ponzi structures
- FTX Exposure: Lost significant funds stored on FTX during collapse, disrupting investment plans
- Key Insight: "Cryptocurrency fundamentally operates on trust mechanics — when that breaks, everything crumbles"
Xiao Guo's Luna Wake-Up Call
- Misjudgment: Assumed post-crash Luna would rebound despite token inflation
- Revelation: "Secondary market prices are illusions without understanding chain mechanics"
- New Approach: Deepened on-chain analysis skills, now prioritizes protocol fundamentals over price action
Xiao Liu's Bear Market Reality Check
- 2022 Losses: Failed Stepn clones and secondary NFT platform investments
- Strategic Shift: Now exclusively invests in sector leaders ("Even in bear markets, blue chips demonstrate resilience")
- Current Rule: "Never chase hype — wait for confirmed sector momentum before allocating"
Part 3: Current Strategies and Market Outlook
Xiao Liu's Bull Market Positioning
Portfolio: 50-60% deployed, focusing on:
- Bitcoin ecosystem (Ordinals/BRC-20)
- DeFi leaders like Pendle in LRT/LST sectors
- Thesis: "We're in early牛市 phase — chain activity precedes price appreciation"
Xiao Guo's Data-Driven Approach
- Blur Investment: Identified through Ethereum gas usage analytics despite never using platform
- Bitcoin Priority: Maintains 50%+ allocation as "psychological anchor"
- On-Chain Focus: "Evaluate projects by real usage metrics, not marketing"
Shang's Airdrop-Centric Model
- 2023 Adaptation: Focuses on "risk-free" airdrop farming (e.g., Blur, Jupiter)
- Industry View: "Supply glut means projects must incentivize users — this creates asymmetric opportunities"
- Macro Perspective: Watches institutional adoption via Bitcoin ETF and RWA developments
Part 4: The Great Bitcoin Asset Debate
Ordinals/BRC-20 Perspectives
- Xiao Guo: "BRC-20 isn't about tokens — it's about Bitcoin finally having native assets"
- Network Effects: "Bitcoin needs organic activity beyond transfers to maintain dominance"
- Developer Conflicts: "Core teams don't own Bitcoin — market demand dictates evolution"
Shang's Big Picture
- 2023 Realization: "Crypto's value isn't in purity — it's in being the only open global opportunity layer"
- Institutional Watch: RWA and ETF flows as indicators of next adoption phase
FAQ Section
Q: How do you identify good airdrop opportunities?
A: (Shang) Monitor projects with: 1) Large funding but no token 2) Clear user incentives 3) Sustainable gas usage patterns.
Q: What's your sell discipline during bull runs?
A: (Xiao Liu) I scale out at 3x/5x/10x milestones based on FDV/sector maturity, never liquidating full positions.
Q: How much portfolio risk is appropriate?
A: (Xiao Guo) Never risk >10% on speculative plays — crypto volatility demands strict position sizing.
Q: Best resources for beginners?
A: Start with Bitcoin whitepaper, Uniswap docs, and Ethereum's developer portal for fundamentals.
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