Market Overview: Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Analysis
Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) plunged to a low around ¥11.2 million before rebounding sharply to ¥12.65 million. However, momentum faded over the weekend, with prices stabilizing between ¥12.2–12.4 million by March 17. While no negative crypto-specific news emerged, BTC followed the downward trend in U.S. equities.
March marks Japan’s fiscal year-end and Q1 earnings for many U.S. companies (December fiscal year). We anticipate buy-back activity in late March, potentially restoring market stability after prolonged bearish conditions.
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Bitcoin (BTC): Is a Rebound Toward the Descending Trendline Possible?
Daily Chart Analysis
- Key Resistance: Descending trendline overlaps with SMA30 (yellow) and SMA200 (orange).
- Critical Juncture: In 3–4 days, SMA200 will intersect the trendline and SMA30, potentially triggering sell-offs.
- Rebound Potential: Expect a ¥300K–400K (~2.5–3.3%) upward move, offering short-term buying opportunities.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
- Recent High: ¥12.65 million aligns with SMA90 (blue), acting as resistance.
- Strategy: Scalp trades near this level, taking profits and repositioning for dips.
- Breakout Scenario: A surge above ¥12.65M could target ¥13M (SMA200).
Ethereum (ETH): Awaiting a Pullback to the Descending Trendline
Daily Chart Analysis
- Pattern: Mirrors BTC’s trendline/SMA30 convergence.
- Rebound Target: ¥300K–320K, ideal for sell-offs.
- MACD: Golden cross formed but lacks momentum; sideways movement suggests further decline if no rebound occurs.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
- SMA90 Resistance: ¥310K serves as a sell trigger.
- Strategy: Adopt a wait-and-watch approach for ETH, favoring sell-on-rallies over buy-the-dips.
FAQ: Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Dynamics
Q1: Why did Bitcoin drop recently?
A1: BTC’s decline was driven by bearish U.S. equities, despite neutral crypto news. Macroeconomic pressures overshadowed market sentiment.
Q2: When might Bitcoin rebound?
A2: A 3–5% rebound is likely if BTC holds above ¥12M, with resistance at ¥12.65M (SMA90). Watch the trendline-SMA200 intersection.
Q3: Is Ethereum a good buy now?
A3: ETH lags BTC in recoveries. Wait for a pullback to ¥300K–320K (descending trendline) for safer exit opportunities.
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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin: Short-term rebound possible, but ¥12.65M is pivotal.
- Ethereum: Sell rallies near ¥310K; avoid premature buys.
- Market Outlook: Late March buy-backs may stabilize prices after recent volatility.
All analyses are based on technical indicators and historical patterns. Monitor real-time data for updates.