The approval of spot Ethereum ETFs is getting closer! Industry executives and participants reveal that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may greenlight these ETFs by July 4, with July 2 being the earliest possible date. Negotiations between asset management firms and regulators have entered the final stages.
SEC Chair Gary Gensler recently confirmed that the approval process is progressing smoothly. While he expressed confidence in the eventual approval, he did not specify a timeline. Gensler emphasized that the current focus is on asset managers, who must fully disclose the validity of their registration statements.
Ethereum Network Activity Surges to New Heights
Ethereum’s network activity has reached impressive levels recently. In the week ending June 21, active crypto addresses surged by 56% compared to the previous week. This heightened activity persists, signaling strong investor interest ahead of potential regulatory milestones.
Over the weekend, Ethereum’s price fluctuated narrowly between $3,400 and $3,550, likely reflecting market anticipation of upcoming developments. Increased network activity often precedes major events, and this spike is largely driven by expectations around spot Ethereum ETF approvals—a potential catalyst for significant price growth.
Mixed Market Predictions on Ethereum’s Future Performance
Bullish Outlooks
- StoneX, a brokerage and financial services firm, predicts a 40% price surge within two months of spot Ethereum ETF approval. Their long-term model forecasts Ethereum’s price ranging between $2,142 and $12,621 over the next two years. However, their most conservative estimate assumes slower growth in gaming and real-world asset (RWA) adoption.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan estimates that U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs could attract $15 billion in net inflows within the first 18 months. Hougan compares Ethereum’s market cap ($405 billion) to Bitcoin’s ($1.2 trillion), suggesting investors may allocate ~25% of crypto ETF investments to Ethereum.
Cautious Perspectives
- Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas believes Ethereum ETF inflows may only reach 10% of Bitcoin ETF flows, translating to $500 million in net inflows over six months (optimistically $1.5 billion).
- Balchunas notes that Ethereum’s institutional market is smaller than Bitcoin’s, and its price has already risen 4x from its low (vs. Bitcoin’s 2.75x), leaving less upside potential. Quantitative data also suggests weaker performance for Ethereum.
FAQs
1. When will spot Ethereum ETFs likely be approved?
The SEC may approve them by July 4, with July 2 as the earliest possible date.
2. How could Ethereum’s price react post-ETF approval?
Predictions vary: StoneX forecasts a 40% surge in two months, while Bloomberg analysts expect modest inflows compared to Bitcoin ETFs.
3. Why is Ethereum’s institutional demand lower than Bitcoin’s?
Ethereum’s smaller market cap, higher prior gains, and weaker quantitative metrics reduce its appeal to conservative institutional investors.
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4. What factors could drive Ethereum’s long-term price?
Adoption in gaming, RWAs, and DeFi could boost demand, but growth depends on tangible use-case expansion.
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5. Are there risks to Ethereum’s post-ETF performance?
Yes, including regulatory hurdles, competition from other L1 blockchains, and macroeconomic factors affecting crypto markets.
Key Takeaways
- Spot Ethereum ETF approvals are imminent, with SEC Chair Gensler signaling confidence.
- Network activity spikes suggest bullish sentiment, but price forecasts remain divided.
- Institutional interest may lag behind Bitcoin’s, impacting long-term inflow potential.
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