Key takeaways:
- Altcoin market cap (excluding ETH) surged $126 billion in Q2 2024, fueling altseason speculation.
- Analysts compare current patterns to the 2017 bull run, citing breakout potential.
- Bitcoin dominance above 60% remains a critical factor for altcoin momentum.
Altcoin Market Cap Breakout Signals Historic Rally
The total altcoin market cap (excluding Ethereum) gained $126 billion in Q2 2024, sparking debates among crypto analysts about an impending altseason. Javon Marks, a prominent crypto analyst, highlighted a chart comparing the TOTAL3 index (altcoin market cap excluding BTC and ETH) against the US money supply. His analysis on X suggests altcoins are primed for their most significant rally since 2017.
"Altcoins have bounced off the breakout retest against the US money supply and could deliver one of their most powerful runs since 2017!"
— Javon Marks
This correlation indicates increased capital inflow into altcoins relative to US liquidity, a bullish sign for investor sentiment.
Technical Patterns Mirror 2017 Bull Run
Anonymous trader Moustache identified a weekly inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the TOTAL3 chart, reminiscent of the 2021 altseason. During that cycle, top altcoins outperformed Bitcoin by 174% vs. 20% in the final leg. The pattern, a classic bullish reversal indicator, suggests altcoins could soon enter a high-growth phase.
Mixed Sentiment Among Analysts
While some analysts predict an altcoin surge, others urge caution. Crypto Scient noted that TOTAL2 (altcoin market cap including ETH) remains in a bearish trend after hitting resistance at $1.25 trillion. The analyst warned:
"Bitcoin and TOTAL are near resistance zones—this could signal distribution rather than breakout."
Similarly, DonaXBT argued that Bitcoin dominance must drop below 60% to trigger a full altseason. Current charts show BTC dominance holding above this critical level, with altcoins needing to clear 56–58% support to gain momentum.
Trading Volume and Market Cycles
Data from CryptoQuant reveals altcoin spot trading volumes remain low ($3B–$5B/day vs. $8B–$12B in Q4 2024). However, historically low volumes often precede bullish reversals. The Altcoin Season Index (24/100) confirms Bitcoin dominance but suggests altcoins are undervalued—a potential setup for rotation.
👉 Why altcoins could outperform Bitcoin in 2024
FAQ: Altcoin Rally Predictions
Q: What triggers an altseason?
A: Key factors include Bitcoin dominance dropping below 60%, rising altcoin trading volumes, and capital rotation from BTC to alts.
Q: How does TOTAL3 relate to altcoin rallies?
A: The TOTAL3 index tracks altcoin market cap (excluding BTC/ETH). A rise against US money supply signals increased altcoin demand.
Q: Are current altcoin prices undervalued?
A: The Altcoin Season Index (24/100) suggests yes—values below 25 often precede altcoin pumps.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Monitor Bitcoin dominance for breakout signals.
- Watch TOTAL3/US money supply ratios for altcoin strength.
- Low trading volumes may indicate early-stage accumulation.
👉 Expert strategies for altcoin investing
This analysis does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct independent research.