Bitcoin's recent pullback from its near-$100,000 all-time high has unsettled traders, with Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick identifying key drivers behind the downturn. These include shifts in U.S. Treasury dynamics and looming options expirations.
What’s Driving Bitcoin’s Decline?
U.S. Treasury Term Premium Shift:
The announcement of Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary nominee reduced term premiums, weakening Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against traditional financial instability. Kendrick notes:"Bitcoin thrives on uncertainty. Lower term premiums temporarily erode its hedging utility."
- Options Expirations:
Over 18,000 BTC in open interest for $85K–$100K strike prices (per Deribit data) is creating price magnetism. Historically, such events limit volatility as traders position around key levels.
Critical Support Levels and Institutional Activity
- ETF & MicroStrategy Buying Floor:
The average institutional purchase price of $88,700 post-U.S. elections could act as a support zone. A dip below this might test $85K–$88.7K before rebounding. - Institutional Demand:
ETFs absorbed ~77,000 BTC since the elections, while MicroStrategy added 134,000 BTC to its holdings—signaling sustained confidence.
👉 Why institutional investors are doubling down on Bitcoin
Market Impact and Outlook
- Short-Term Pressure: Liquidations exceeding $500M reflect heightened risk aversion amid BTC’s drop from $98.5K to $93.5K.
Long-Term Bullishness: Kendrick reaffirms targets:
- 2024: $125,000
2025: $200,000
"This is a correction within a structural bull market. Macro headwinds will pass."
FAQs
Q: How low could Bitcoin drop in this correction?
A: Key support lies at $85,000–$88,700, with $88,700 being the institutional buying average.
Q: Does this pullback invalidate the bullish trend?
A: No. Institutional accumulation and long-term targets suggest resilience post-correction.
Q: What’s the #1 catalyst for Bitcoin’s next rally?
A: Clarity on macroeconomic policies and renewed hedging demand could reignite upward momentum.
👉 Expert predictions for Bitcoin’s 2025 cycle
Current Bitcoin Price Action
Trading at **$93,440** (down 1.5% today), BTC remains 25% below Standard Chartered’s year-end projection. The path to $125K hinges on reclaiming $95K as support.
Disclosure: Trading involves risk; 82% of retail CFD accounts lose money.