On June 14th, BLUR will unlock approximately 195 million tokens, marking a significant event four months after its February 23rd airdrop. Here’s a detailed analysis of why this unlock might not trigger a sell-off despite the substantial volume.
Unlock Breakdown
The June 14th unlock involves 195 million tokens distributed as follows:
- Contributors: ~115 million
- Investors: ~75 million
- Advisors: ~5 million
This represents a 6% increase in total supply and a 30% boost to circulating supply (market cap), equating to ~$60 million in potential sell pressure. Notably, 51% of allocations are earmarked for internal stakeholders.
Key Factors Influencing Token Price Post-Unlock
Seed/Private Investor ROI
- BLUR’s $11M seed round (March 2022) led by Paradigm had an undisclosed valuation, likely under $1B. Seed investors are currently profitable, possibly creating sell pressure.
- Subsequent investors in the $1B valuation round (February 2023) face lower ROI, reducing their incentive to sell immediately.
- Team’s Long-Term Commitment
The BLUR team comprises proven builders who’ve challenged OpenSea’s dominance. Their strategic decisions and success in initial phases suggest they’re unlikely to dump tokens prematurely. Financial Health & Traction
- Trading Volume: Consistently 2× higher than OpenSea since February.
- Lending TVL: $39M on BLUR’s lending platform.
- Revenue potential includes a 2.5% fee upon governance activation.
Valuation Metrics
- Current FDV: $931M.
- Projected annual revenue (conservative 1% fee on $4.4B trading volume): ~$33M.
- FDV/Revenue: 28x vs. OpenSea’s 107x, indicating BLUR is undervalued.
- Price Action & Market Sentiment
BLUR’s price already corrected 40% due to recent exchange-related FUD, allowing shorts to profit. This may mitigate post-unlock volatility. Upcoming Airdrop (Season 2)
- 300M tokens will be distributed to the community, incentivizing loyalty.
- The airdrop timeline extends to October 2023, delaying potential sell pressure.
FAQs
Q1: Will BLUR’s unlock cause a price crash?
A1: Unlikely. Most investors lack strong sell motives, and the team’s commitment + undervaluation act as stabilizers.
Q2: How does BLUR’s valuation compare to OpenSea?
A2: BLUR’s FDV/Revenue (28x) is far lower than OpenSea’s (107x), suggesting room for growth.
Q3: What’s the significance of Season 2’s airdrop?
A3: It aligns community incentives and delays sell pressure, as tokens unlock gradually over months.
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Final Thoughts
- No imminent sell-off: Investor incentives and team strategy reduce dumping risks.
- Undervalued asset: BLUR’s metrics outperform OpenSea, offering growth potential.
- Community focus: Season 2 airdrop fosters long-term engagement.
Always conduct independent research before investing. Market conditions can change rapidly.